DRC Disruptions Persist; Low Operating Rate for Downstream Enterprises Resuming Production [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (2503) exhibited a steady upward trend since the market opened. Although prices experienced a significant decline during the previous night's session due to related news, the daytime session saw SHFE tin futures quickly rebound with increased positions and an upward trajectory. Overall market sentiment leaned optimistic, with the most-traded contract maintaining stable performance at high levels and active trading volumes, reflecting growing bullish enthusiasm. This phenomenon was primarily supported by positive macroeconomic signals and the tense situation in the DRC, which provided a solid foundation for the market.

In the spot tin market, tin ingot prices closely mirrored the trends in the futures market. Specifically, the quoted range for SMM 1# tin ingot was 258,100 yuan to 260,500 yuan, with an average price of 259,300 yuan. Compared to the previous day, the average price increased by 300 yuan/mt.

A detailed analysis of the current market dynamics reveals a strong futures market and a relatively weaker spot market today. In the futures market, the tense situation in the DRC provided strong upward momentum.

With the Chinese New Year holiday coming to an end, most downstream enterprises resumed production today. However, due to the continued rise in tin prices, end-user purchasing willingness remained weak. As a result, downstream enterprises received limited orders, overall operating rates stayed at low levels, and demand for tin ingots was relatively sluggish, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere in the spot tin market. It is expected that market conditions may improve after the Lantern Festival as more end-user enterprises resume operations. Moving forward, we need to closely monitor the US Fed's interest rate cut policy and the situations in major tin ingot exporting countries such as Myanmar and the DRC to better assess market trends.